The Latest On The Ukraine And Russia War: What You Need to Know

The Latest On The Ukraine And Russia War: What You Need to Know

There has been a lot of political tension between Russia and Ukraine lately, which can make international news hard to follow. The two countries have been at odds ever since the Soviet Union collapsed and Ukraine became an independent country in 1991, but things have been particularly tense since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and began backing Ukrainian rebels with military support, causing widespread civilian casualties in the region. Here’s an overview of this ongoing conflict that will hopefully clear up some of the confusion surrounding it.

Facts

April 16, 2014, marked one of the latest developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Russia forced a Malaysia Airlines passenger plane off course by using a missile system, resulting in its crash killing all 298 passengers on board.

The plane was en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur and crashed in an area near Torez, 15 miles away from where the aircraft was originally heading.

It is unclear who shot down Malaysian Airlines flight 17 but Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko states he has evidence that pro-Russian rebels were behind the shooting down MH17. He describes it as an act of terrorism.

Some speculate that Russian President Putin knew about and approved missiles used for shootdowns even though Putin denied any involvement in events surrounding the airplane crash.

Where Are We Now?

It’s a little easier than it was last year to answer that question. Pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine have been fighting for their independence from Kyiv and planning for a showdown with NATO since May 2014, when Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops across his country’s border into parts of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts.

The goal was simple, according to Putin: To protect ethnic Russians there from neo-Nazi Ukrainian nationalist threats and offer them an alternative governing body more friendly to Moscow. In response, leaders in Kyiv authorized military operations against separatist forces in August 2014; by September they had reclaimed some ground.

What has been the impact of the war?

Over 4,700 people have likely been killed in eastern Ukraine since April. The Ukrainian government claims their troops are battling separatists and Russian soldiers who are arming them with weapons like SA-11 Buk (NATO designation Gadfly) missile systems that were able to take down MH17. According to those who study war and peace, what we're seeing in eastern Ukraine right now is a covert invasion by Russia with [Russian] special operations forces inside Eastern Ukraine helping build up rebel forces into a conventional army with air defenses capable of knocking an airliner out of the sky. Experts also say there’s increasing evidence that Russian troops may have played a role in firing on MH17.

Future Predictions

It is hard to know what will happen in a conflict as complicated as that between Russia and Ukraine. It is possible that we could see more military action, including air attacks and ground operations by Russian troops on Ukrainian territory.

It's also possible that fighting will decrease after a cease-fire agreement; however, it is unlikely hostilities will cease entirely for some time.

In many ways, it's too early to tell how things are going to play out; as of now, violence appears to have decreased but there may be more military actions later in the week or next month. For now, anyone considering travel in or through areas bordering on Ukraine should remain vigilant regarding an increased possibility of violence at any moment.

Why Hasn't There Been A Resolution?

Back in February, Russian President Vladimir Putin urged his Ukrainian counterpart, Viktor Yanukovych, to abandon a trade agreement with Europe and join a new Russian-led customs union. Following Yanukovych's decision, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians took to their country's streets calling for his resignation.

When he fled Kyiv last month after agreeing with opposition leaders that included early elections for both president and parliament and a return to an earlier constitution, it was seen as a victory for pro-Western forces.

But tensions have remained high as some pro-Russia factions in southern and eastern parts of Ukraine have refused to recognize Kyiv's new government or its claim on Crimea—which is now under armed occupation by Moscow loyalists who support turning it into part of Russia.

Is it a New Cold War?

The crisis between Russia and Western nations such as Britain, France, and Germany is escalating. Russian President Vladimir Putin has not backed down from his stance on Crimea and other former Soviet states in Eastern Europe. Many experts feel that another Cold War may be beginning between East and West. So far, NATO countries have passed economic sanctions against Putin’s regime for their alleged involvement in pro-Russian uprisings in Ukraine.

Is there any way to stop this war?

For months now, Ukrainian soldiers have been fighting off pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. Kyiv claims that Russian troops have been sending reinforcements across their shared border; Moscow denies these allegations. In a statement released on Tuesday, however, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that well over 1,000 Russian soldiers are now operating inside Ukraine—and noted that Russia appears to be fueling the conflict with an acute military buildup. So what happens next? We're still waiting for details on that one. As of right now, it appears there's no end in sight.